Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In Life And In the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Human beings are exceptional at pattern recognition and, for the most part, this skill serves us well.
Taleb does a brilliant job of explaining the other side of that coin: Mistaking correlation for causation, overestimating causation, a belief that everything can actually be explained and the apparent inability to get our heads around ‘randomness’.
Taleb goes beyond the numbers and uses real-world examples to explore topics such as survivorship bias, a systematic neglect of outliers and the scarcity of truly symmetrical distributions in the real world.
This book will make you think differently about the roles luck and chance play in your life. With the business world as a back-drop, real life situations as examples and a ‘tell it as I see it’ delivery, this read is as entertaining as it is thought provoking. We consider it a must read for every investor.